McCain’s Odds on Electoral College Win? Slim.

Posted by admin on October 13, 2008 under Election 08, Politics, news | Comments are off for this article

FiveThirtyEight.com reports that John McCain’s odds of winning the electoral college vote, and therefore the presidency are only 5.9 percent. McCain has been trailing in the polls by 7% to 10% for the last several weeks, which, if history is any indicator bodes poorly for him.

John Harwood of the New York Times is reporting on this as well, saying:

Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.

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But since polling began, the pattern is that swings in opinion get smaller as Election Day approaches and voters gather more information. As American politics have grown more polarized, the opportunity for large swings has become smaller still.

-NY Times (Source)

It is not impossible for McCain to circumvent these odds, after all, somebody wins the PowerBall drawing and those odds are much worse. McCain will likely assail Obama’s character for the remainder of the campaign, and try to scare white voters away from the Democrat.

Obama however only needs to hold on to his lead, and with the help of Hillary and Bill Clinton campaigning for him he should be able to maintain his support among white voters, where McCain feels he is most vulnerable.

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